October Market Report 2024

Highlights from Greater Vancouver’s October 2024 Real Estate Market Report

• Sales transactions surged in October

• New listings for October hit the second-highest level since 1991

• Bank of Canada’s 50-point rate cut—with more cuts likely on the way

• Listing absorption rates spiked

October’s real estate activity picked up, with sales surging alongside a notable rate cut from the Bank of Canada. While some hoped for a bigger rate reduction to jumpstart the market, a 50-basis point cut provided a welcome nudge. As the dust settles from BC’s provincial election, questions remain about the government’s housing promises and whether policy will drive more meaningful change.

U.S. events like the Presidential Election and upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions continue to create economic noise. With the U.S. economy outperforming Canada’s, their interest rate cuts might not match Canada’s. This dynamic has weakened the Canadian dollar, and further cuts here could add to that trend, particularly as another half-point reduction could be on the horizon in December or January.

Sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,632 properties in October—marking a strong fall peak. This 32% year-over-year increase is a promising sign of buyer engagement, particularly since October sales showed the strongest month-over-month increase since early 2022. Buyers appear to be re-entering the market, possibly driven by the recent rate cut and upcoming changes to mortgage rules in December. The government’s plan to allow 30-year amortizations for presale buyers and increase the insured mortgage threshold to $1.5 million may fuel buyer interest into the new year. In a shifting market, the saying rings true: buy now or compete later.

In October, sales sat 5% below the 10-year average, a marked improvement compared to the previous months’ performance. This uptick wasn’t simply seasonal; it indicated a resurgence in activity. October’s sales boost, especially in the townhome segment, suggests demand is making a comeback.

New listings reached 5,577 in October—a 10% dip from September but 20% above the 10-year average. Despite higher listing levels, inventory didn’t exceed 15,000 units, a benchmark not seen since 2019. As listings begin to decline toward year-end, this could further drive demand.

Absorption rates also rose in October, reducing months of supply across all property types. Detached homes dropped to 7 months of supply, townhomes to 4 (entering seller’s market territory), and condos to 4.5. October’s increased sales in each category created more competition among buyers, particularly for townhomes and condos, which continue to have high demand. Inventory for these property types remains higher year-over-year, especially compared to detached homes.

In summary, October’s uptick in activity is a promising start to what could be a stronger end to the year. A few more rate cuts from the Bank of Canada could help sustain this momentum, though economic headwinds and policy changes may still influence the pace of recovery.

For stats specific to your sub-area, please contact me @ kit@kitbrown.ca